Commentary: Stern to Satellite Will Affect Broadcasters (October 8, 2004)

Depending on a morning show to prop up a radio station full of poorly rated dayparts will not be good for stations such as Planet or WXRK in New York for the long run. It's time for the music directors and programmers to put out a call to action and get a better morning and afternoon daypart idea implemented.

With classic rock seriously on the AARP side of the ratings database, and the older listeners listening to satellite radio if not mature-skewing broadcasters such as KIFM and KSDS, classic rock the way it's being programmed now is not going to get any better ratings than they did last year, or the year before that, or even ten years ago.

Satellite radio programming interesting rock programming concepts that escape the cookie-cutter mentality (not just period-piece Top 40-esque songs) is driving listeners like myself away from KGB and Planet (ok, I left KGB before the end of the millenium), towards, at first, a limited MP3 download collection, then when I got tired of the songs, subscription to an endless stream of new adult rock music via XM and Sirius.

Back after this cheap plug:

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Now back to the commentary.

The writing is on the wall for broadcast radio. Affluent people are abandoning the broadcasters for satellite radio if they want to listen to new music that appeals to them. The days of programming just old teenage-era music for the elders and new teenage-era music for today's kids are coming to an end. Radio can't keep playing songs elders remember when they were 17 fifty years ago.

Satellite radio will seriously affect programming so much with Stern departing that several classic rock and FM talk stations may decide to flip formats after realizing that the audience flow won't be sustained once Stern's abscence creates a void in the morning talent daypart. If FM Talk can't get another talent into that slot soon, then they must increase the ratings of the dayparts following Stern after 10am. Replace classic rock with programming of Deep Tracks XM 40 as that kind of rock mix is the most compatable with listeners who grew up on classic rock. A mixture of blues and rock jazz heard on some of the other stations on XM can be mixed in. Classic rock radio as it is today is finished. It is soon to be no more. FM talk can get talkers from All Comedy Radio to fill the post-Stern daypart and get listeners familiar enough with the programming to move more of it into the morning slot once Stern ends.

Bob and Tom, Bob Rivers, John Boy and Billy, and some other morning show teams of note may take a shot to be on some of the soon-to-be former Stern affilliates by January 2006.

Already, almost three million listeners are grabbing satellite radio subscriptions, and many more are replacing their cassette car stereo decks with MP3 CD stereo decks so they can listen to over ten hours of music on a CD! Many people switch to non-broadcaster music after their favorite morning shows end.

Why are the morning shows the only kind of programming that attracts listeners? It's the last bastion of almost free-form programming radio with the hosts in the captain's seat, directing how their show should be navigated along with their listeners. The morning shows break off from the regular format and do just about whatever their listeners would like to hear. That's why shows like Bob and Tom enjoy being on over 120 stations in the United States.

Radio should also consider, aside of All Comedy Radio, other kinds of programming that are a blend of morning show comedy and music that fits what the listener would enjoy. How about comedy and electronica in one station? Whatever you can think of.

With Stern moving to satellite, other notable syndicated talent such as Dr. Demento may also move their shows full-time to satellite, and even get their own channels on the birds. How about a trio of all Dr. Demento stations! He might as well move his show since none of the broadcasters are interested in anything such as Dr. Demento that is mind expanding.

There is no doubt that popular syndicated shows such as Rush Limbaugh will continue to be on broadcast radio for a long time, but the shows that have a hard time getting ratings and affilliates such as Demento may think about moving their shows over to satellite.

With the exodus of talent to satellite, what would that leave the broadcasters with? They can compete with satellite, provided that they can change the way they have been programming and thinking about music since the early days of the medium. No more period-piece formats. No more niche talk formats that attract big ratings only when there's a game on. Radio needs to get serious about getting their listeners back and put on something relevant to today's diverse musical tastes if they want to survive.

Who knew that Clear Channel's big spending days in the late 90's would not be as lucrative as it would have been if it were not for satellite radio and MP3 downloads taking away the listeners' time that would have been spent listening to Clear Channel.

If the rich are going to satellite radio, then the poor would stick with broadcast radio. What does that mean? More programming and commercials for the poor demographic, the kind of listener the advertisers don't really care to reach out to. More tight playlists, more cookie-cutter programming concepts and automated playlists and extreme voicetracking of airshifts (one or two on several Clear Channel stations in each market it programs), less new music for older listeners, and an endless stream of nothing but music for the teens such as rap, chick rock, hip hop, and teen love ballads. Pure 100 percent radio hell is coming to a broadcaster near you.

With the advertisers being more reluctant to spend money trying to get a poor listener to buy something more expensive than monthly rent and insurance, and the rich paying for commercial-free music on satellite, and the listening base down to mostly 12-24, then broadcast radio will end up more like Logan's Run, that is, no listeners over the age of 30, the way it's going today. KIFM's smooth jazz format will change to hip hop funk with too many of its rich listening base listening to that format on satellite instead of KIFM. Pop standards, oldies of the 50s-70s, classic rock, 80s alternative, and classical music will no longer be on the broadcasters as those listeners in large numbers are on satellite and not enough of them are out there to listen to them.

Welcome to the end of broadcast radio folks. At least San Diego is way ahead of most markets in that sense. The broadcast radio era in San Diego ended in 1996 when Jacor dominated San Diego and Bryan Jones was fired as Flash programmer. It's been pure radio hell for us males in their mid-40s ever since. Too soft. Too hard. Too teen. Too old. I feel like f--kin' Goldilocks changing the dial.

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